Another critical week for environmental sustainability is looming with the annual staging of the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

COP28 will take place in Dubai on 30 November to 12 December, the annual gathering of global leaders tasked with finding solutions to global warming caused by unsustainable human activities, in particular, the release of greenhouse gas emissions. 

COP27, which took place last year in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt saw continued calls for urgent climate action from world leaders, with a particular emphasis on supporting developing nations most vulnerable to climate impacts. 

The most prevalent talking point from the 2022 conference was that there was an abundantly clear emissions gap between current national climate plans and what is necessary. The highly unpredictable climate and record-breaking extreme weather events, from floods in Pakistan to heatwaves in India and the United States, that have dominated the headlines this year, have only added to the urgency and concern.

As the 2023 Conference (COP28) approaches, eyes are fervently fixed on the energy sector. Many observers are left asking - amid all the pledges and promises - has enough meaningful progress been made since the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015? 

Or do these extreme weather events indicate the need to significantly amplify both commitments and tangible actions from the UN and communities across Europe? Many regard ‌this year’s conference as the most important since COP21 when governments adopted the Paris Agreement. So let’s assess retrospectively whether enough progress has been made since that landmark date in 2015 and evaluate.

A Brief History of Climate Conferences

The modern Conference of Parties (COP) meetings through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) trace back to the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992. These conferences have predominantly focused on reducing emissions and adapting to intensifying climate impacts worldwide.

The 2015 Paris Agreement (set during COP21) was the most significant moment, setting explicit targets to limit global average temperature increases to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. This milestone agreement has 196 country signatories committed to regularly enhancing their climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

However, in recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to restrict global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The UN’s incumbent climate change panel indicates that crossing this 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more destructive and severe climate change impacts. Put simply, the Paris Agreement is a landmark in binding nations together in agreed, concentrated efforts to combat climate change.

What to Expect from 2023 Onwards

So what makes 2023 such a pivotal year? For starters, the Paris Agreement stipulated that this would be the first year for a ‘global stocktake’, which will confirm whether the 1.5°C target is reachable within the next decade. This stocktake, in no uncertain terms, will influence the next set of NDCs for each contributing nation, and it has essentially already pinpointed that countries are not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation goal. 

The overarching aim of the Paris Agreement was to help nations achieve net zero status by 2050 with milestone targets to reduce carbon emissions by roughly 57% by 2030. Therefore, it’s fair to say that a lot is riding on this year’s conference.

Incremental Achievements Since Paris

The years since 2015 have seen some successes and achievements, with countries collectively accounting for most worldwide emissions having now submitted NDCs. 

Progress has been made from investors shifting away from the use of coal to a surge in support for global net-zero targets and rising movements of climate awareness action. Wind and solar energy solutions are also growing exponentially, with funding distributed in nations to drive growth and innovation in these sectors. In the last year, discussions about phasing out fossil fuels and increasing efforts in clean energy have also gained significant traction.

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a historic drop in global emissions in 2020 due to the enforcement of lockdowns and isolation, thus effectively grinding the transport and tourism sectors to a halt. Changes in business policies and practices followed suit, with many firms turning to remote or flexible working to accommodate changing worker demands. As such, many businesses have a better grasp on their carbon footprints and taken incremental steps to reduce that where possible, citing sustainability as a key driving force.

"We've seen an increase in companies adopting flexible and remote working business models as a way to improve productivity as well as meet emission reduction targets,” explains Redscan, a penetration testing and cyber incident response provider operating globally. “We work with companies worldwide who are well aware of the need to cut back where possible, and it’s pleasing to see that businesses are taking sustainability seriously.”

Additionally, more than 1000 large corporations (including Chanel and Nestle) have pledged major emission reductions, with many committing to transitioning to 100% renewable energy. 

Insufficient Progress on Key Benchmarks

However, the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) has found that even with the latest NDCs, countries are severely and worryingly behind in their efforts to combat climate change.

Scientists widely agree warming must halt at 1.5°C to avoid catastrophic impacts on communities worldwide. The earth’s average temperature has already increased by approximately 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, according to an IPCC assessment. The report predicts that the world will reach or exceed 1.5°C of global warming within the next 20 years, even if nations drastically cut emissions. 

Goals for climate finance also remain unmet, as developing nations face intensifying yet underfunded climate effects. Developed nations like the U.S., India and China have statistically emitted more greenhouse gases since the first climate talks in the 1990s, and there is an argument to be made that these nations shoulder more of the burden due to achieving unrestrained economic growth, while developing countries were not so fortunate. 

However, climate change is, in the eyes of many experts, a shared responsibility amongst all countries. The Kyoto Protocol, conversely to the Paris Agreement, only mandated that developed countries reduce emissions, and major climate discussions have evolved since then. 

Despite this, most experts say that countries’ pledges are not ambitious enough and will not be immediately sufficient to restrict the 1.5°C temperature rise. The policies of Paris signatories, as of late last year, could result in a counterproductive 2.7°C rise by 2100, according to the Climate Action Tracker. 

Even with promises of increased emission reduction activities and revised 2030 pledges from the U.S., EU, and China, the world’s average temperature is still on track to rise by 2100. The Climate Action Tracker also points out that if over 100 of the net-zero signatories followed through with their revised promises, warming could be limited to 1.8°C.

Momentum Building 

While it’s easy to get lost in an echo chamber of climate change facts, statistics and figures, and feel dissuaded and demotivated learning of its potential impact on the things we love and enjoy, it’s important that we stay the course. 

The 2019 Climate Action Summit saw the introduction of multiple initiatives to tackle emissions and associated concerns, such as employment, gender equality, finance, infrastructure, technology, resilience, and so on.

Here are some powerful coalitions, to name just a few:

• Climate Action for Jobs

• Action Towards Climate-Friendly Transport

• Business Ambition for 1.5°C

• Coalition for Climate-Resilient Investment

• Campaign for Nature

• Leadership for Urban Climate Investment

Notably, the sports world is stepping up through the Sports for Climate Action Framework, led by the UN Climate Change organisation. Hundreds of sports organisations have signed up, committing to promoting climate awareness and sustainable practices. These organisations recognise climate change's inevitable impact on sports infrastructure and events. More importantly, they leverage immense viewer platforms to drive public support for emissions reductions and climate justice.

Hopeful Outlook Depends on Accelerated Action

Has enough been done since Paris? The evidence would suggest not, but that doesn’t mean that all progress made thus far should be ignored. 

Through growing coalitions and initiatives, such as Sports for Climate Action, we see the potential to exponentially accelerate progress through smart commitments that activate policymakers, businesses, and citizens worldwide.

COP28 takes place soon, and with urgent calls for energy, transport, building, and food system transformation, we must believe constructive dialogue can still produce breakthroughs. The alternative, a world surpassing dangerous warming thresholds, remains too grave to accept.

Join the conversation by getting involved with Planet Earth Games' challenges, and make your voice heard in demanding meaningful climate action all the way through 2050 targets and beyond.